The Reinsurance industry is in good shape reports Moody's Investors Service. Reinsurance rates drop when there are fewer Hurricanes or other Catastrophe Claims, in basic terms, and increase when there is more demand for Reinsurance such as in years when there is more and greater damage from Hurricanes. Reinsurance rates are in their second year of decline, at least until Hurricane Gustav arrived. Moody's takes the declining two-year rate period into account in its report, noting that Reinsurance Companies have also taken the two-year rate decline into account. They have the financial strength to earn Moody's expectation of a stable outlook despite lower rates for Reinsurance, and despite a recession in the United States, "and the credit market disruption." Oliver Suess, "Strong Financials Let Reinsurers Weather Turmoil, Moody's Says" (Bloomberg.com, Friday, September 5, 2008).
The world's two largest Reinsurance Companies are Munich Re and Swiss Re, measured by net Reinsurance premiums written. Oliver Suess, "Munich Re and Swiss Re Top S&P's List of Largest Reinsurers" (Bloomberg.com, Saturday, September 6, 2008). They both have a different story to tell. Both reportedly want to raise rates to "reverse" the two-year "20 percent decline in rates". Oliver Suess and Jon Menon, "Munich Re May See Higher Rates, Profits in Wake of 2008 Storms" (Bloomberg.com, Friday, September 5, 2008). It is reported that Munich Re's share price is down 12% compared to 2 years ago, and that Swiss Re's share price is down 29% over the same two-year period. Id.
Further, a report recently issued by Standard & Poor's seems to support the Reinsurers and contradict Moody's. S&P's report contains the opinion that Reinsurers may experience "material reduction" in Underwriting Profits if they are not allowed to raise their rates, now. Oliver Suess, "Munich Re and Swiss Re Top S&P's List of Largest Reinsurers" (Bloomberg.com, Saturday, September 6, 2008). The culprit seems to be increased claims costs. Id. More specifically, claims costs increased with a rising "frequency and severity of claims" apparently since 2006 and 2007. Oliver Suess, "Reinsurers Need Higher Rates to Offset More Claims, S&P Says" (Bloomberg.com, Saturday, September 6, 2008). Reportedly, Hurricane Gustav, for example, caused "insured damages of about $3 billion to $7 billion ... according to estimated [sic] by modeling firm Eqecat Inc." Id.
(Parenthetically, "insured damages of about $3 billion to $7 billion" is a very broad range indeed. Until September, 2008, claims incurred and reported were listed in those terms, i.e., claims incurred and reported. Claims are not shown nor reported "according to estimates by modeling firms".)
Perhaps reflecting a truer reality, Swiss Re recently said itself, that its 2Q 2008 Profit declined 53% because of "writedowns related to credit-default swaps." Oliver Suess and Jon Menon, "Munich Re May See Higher Rates, Profits in Wake of 2008 Storms" (Bloomberg.com, Friday, September 5, 2008).
In fact, in the same linked newspaper report it is also reported that ceding Insurance Companies (inaccurately sometimes referred to in the report as "primary" insurers) themselves accounted for $77 Billion of such writedowns from 2007 through 1Q 2008. Id. American International Group ("AIG") alone accounted for about half of that amount, it is reported. Id.
In a related or unrelated development, AIG and General Reinsurance Corporation executives were recently convicted of criminal charges of fraud and conspiracy. Federal prosecutors put the price tag to AIG shareholders "as much as $1.4 billion". David Voreacos and Jane Mills, "Investors Lost $1.4 Billion in General Re, AIG Fraud, U.S. Says (Update 2)" (Bloomberg.com, Friday, September 5, 2008).
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