The U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee is considering whether Computer Models can be used to predict how much of a Hurricane Loss is due to Wind vs. how much is due to Flood. See Lydia Mulvaney of McClatchy Newspapers, "Models Can Determine Wind and Water Damage, Panel Told" posted in political blog on MiamiHerald.com on Thursday, June 23, 2011.
There is a major drawback: Bad Faith. Although it has been held by the Courts that it is not Bad Faith simply to use Computer Models as tools to determine Coverage for all or part of a Loss, Courts have also held that Insurance Companies expose themselves to liability beyond their Policy Limits if they abdicate to Computers their responsibility to determine whether all or part, if any, of a Loss is Covered. See the post on Sunday, June 26, 2011 on Insurance Claims and Bad Faith Law Blog where this issue is addressed, and see the related post on Tuesday, June 28, 2011.
There is a second drawback: These Models are not necessarily as accurate as they are advertised to be. There is no such thing as "Garbage In, Gospel Out". See the post on Insurance Claims and Bad Faith Law Blog on Tuesday, June 28, 2011. The people selling these Computer Models have a right to sell us this software, if we let them, but they have no right to call their Computer Models "the Gospel Truth".
There is a third strike: The way in which these Models are being sold is suspicious, although it may be sincere. Predictions by people who profit from the predictions are inherently suspect predictions, whether the predictions are made by people who will profit by selling the software or by trying to sell a lower payment. Advertising of these particular computer programs seems often to be based on the same marketing playbook that has been used recently in financial transactions and natural gas schemes:
"They want to bend light to hide the truth."
Anonymous retired Unocal geologist writing in a February, 2011 E-Mail "about other companies invested in shale gas," quoted by Ian Urbina, "Insiders Sound an Alarm Amid a Natural Gas Rush" p. 1, col. 5 (New York Times Nat'l ed., Sunday, June 26, 2011).
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