This is an update to the November 7, 2012 article posted here, "Computer Models Doing Good After Hurricane Sandy? Not so Much," and to the articles linked in it.
In whatever form models may come, as program models or as computer models, one commentator recently observed in the context of social programs that "evidence-based funding criteria" is "a powerful new incentive for the development, rigorous evaluation and -- if effective -- dissemination of new program strategies and models. It would catalyze evidence-driven improvements in an otherwise moribund system." Jon Baron, "Applying Evidence to Social Programs" published on the Economix Blog on The New York Times website, posted November 29, 2012, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/29.
"Evidence-driven improvements" are exactly what certain computer models are designed in the Insurance context to replace. They are not a substitute for measuring known losses backed by solid documentation, whether to predict weather-related catastrophic losses before they occur, based on years of records, or to quantify the known losses after they occur, by examining and evaluating the actual destruction.
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