Context. The best reporting presents things in context. Context is recognized as a necessity for trustworthy journalism. Always.
An example was given by polling results that were published by The New York Times in November, 2023 about how people said they would vote come the November, 2024 election. Many people expressed shock and surprise that the results of those polls had Joe Biden losing. Before we address the most obvious problems with these polls, many observers have already (correctly) pointed out that the results are unreliable for various reasons, including some that are mentioned below.
In context, the most obvious thing behind the New York Times' November 2023 poll results is that Joe Biden is not popular to begin with.
In his past runs for the Presidency, Biden has not done very well. I believe that he had two runs before 2020 and the longest his candidacy lasted may have been a few months; if he earned a single delegate in those past runs, that would be a surprise.
In 2020, Joe Biden was almost left for dead, politically, until the South Carolina primary came along. He had the good fortune to be the only so-called "centrist" candidate left, meaning that the rich and arrogant people that think they are in charge of the Democratic Party had no-one else to turn to. Then came South Carolina and Biden's fortunes changed such that he got his party's nomination and ran in the general election against someone else who had run for the Presidency before, had never won the popular vote, and alienated so much of the electorate that Mr. Biden got 7 Million more votes than his opponent.
Returning to reasons that polls in November, 2023 are unreliable predictors of results in November, 2024:
- Most obviously: Polls have not been correct for the past 8 years. There is no reason to expect them to be correct now.
- The next Presidential Election is a year away. A lot can happen in the meantime. (Look for example at what has happened in just the past year.)
- There is a real difference between what people say, and what voters do. Some people lie to pollsters. People lie for various reasons. Some are annoyed with pollsters and their polls. Others are unhappy with the current state of affairs in the United States (for that matter, who isn't?). Still others don't like the people they have to choose from in this election. There are a lot of reasons, but there is a real difference between the answers a person is willing to give to poll questions, and the vote that same person casts at the polls.
All that said, no objective person can legitimately say that this is good news for Joe Biden. The shock and surprise at poll results from November of last year, about predicted results to come in November of this year, are that if this were a horse race, Biden should be way ahead, leading by lengths:
- The economy is the best it has been in years, the unemployment rate is microscopic, and inflation has been coming way down.
- Workers are enchanted with new-found security and better wages.
- Biden's opposition comes from sources that are the most anti-American since secessionists started a civil war.
Putting things in context is, to say again, the mark of the best reporting. Context is a necessity for trustworthy journalism.
Always.
This marks a perhaps temporary departure from the past several months' of Go Forward articles. The focus here is still on what's positive in the country, in the world, and in our lives. Go Forward.
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